Sunday, March 18, 2012

Technical Analysis for Nifty



After a sustained upmove since 4530 levels , a correction has set in from short term top at 5630 . We try to analyze whether the correction will extend further in short term? and what's in store trading further ? Below are some charts and conclusions -


1. Indicators :




Both the Weekly and Daily TF indicates further downside.


2. Moving Averages :


The 5week ema signals for a weak bias till remains below 5450.


3. F & O Data :


The Futures data indicates of Short build up last week and Option data signals of further slide may be even below 5200 levels.


4. Volumes :




The 10 d volume profile indicates of downside to continue till closes above apprx. 5365 levels as of now.


5. Elliott Wave Analysis :

One of the probable EW counts that looks good in the Larger Time Frame is that we still are in a Bear Market and the upmove since 4530 level was the last leg of an X wave (in Expanded Flat) after the Double Zigzag since 6338 .



The above count is more clear on Weekly charts where noise is less.


The Count since 4532 may be as follows in 5 waves up-


The Count since short term top of 5630 may be as follows-


The Alternate count in larger TF may be the Bear Market ending at 4530 levels and new impulse up which is being corrected now. The Fibo. chart shows probable targets for counts .



Conclusions :

1. The Short term looks tilted towards downside positionally with targets of 5150 and 5050 appx.

2. 5365 can be used as SAR for positional trading.

3. The Bias changes on close above 5450 and can be treated as Point of Invalidation of the analysis as of now.

4. The downside may extend further as per probabale EW count in Medium Term ,so be cautious with Buying on Dips.

5. A word of caution on the Golden Cross of 50-200dma making traders overtly bullish . Check the chart below for a whipsaw in 2004. Nothing is cast in stone in these markets.


Have a Profitable Trading Time ahead !!!   
 

24 comments:

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear RV!

Thank you so much for clear cut views, its really nice to see your analysis with 3Cs.

Rgrds,

Kumar

Alpesh , Dk said...

Dear "RV"
Thank u very much for yr update count on Nifty
regards,
Alpesh

piyush sharda said...

very good analysis rv. systematic derailed and precise as always..

piyush sharda said...

typo detailed instead of "derailed"

what one letter can do :-)

Anonymous said...

You have too many flaws while labelling the first count , you are labelling it WXYXZ where Z is yet to come , how can X be labelled when it has broken the upper channel?
How can b wave take less time in both the ABC and when a corrective is in progress how can a c(x) wave cross the b wave in less than 50 percent of the time though it may be retracing a b wave which you are labelling as expanding flat, are the arms of an expanding flat so volatile??
the c(x) wave is perfectly channeling , does an impulse channel perfectly, i doubt and when 1 is microscopic in comparison to the 3rd wave how can the corrective after that breach the 4th bottom??????
too many flaws
you should introspect on the above points and revisit the nifty chart.

KRG said...

Anonymous: Your points would be valid in a neo-wave context. These kind of time & channel requirements are not looked at by traditional EW followers, probably one of the reasons for multiple counts. If you have a count that adheres to the neo-wave principles, pls do post

bizagra said...

dear Aarvee, plz update possible wave count now..r v moving up in c of B??thx

Anonymous said...

It doesnt matter whether it is neowave or elliot wave , the most important point is the end result ,post pattern implications are most important, if it would have been neo wave you could have correctly found out nifty not to go below 4528 as the 4720-5177-4740-5399-4639-5099 set upresembles a neutral triangle though not exactly one so the thrustgoing out of it shouldnot exceed 75 % of the longest arm of the triangle and thus gives you a bottom of 4528
I am extremely sorry that i will not be able to give you the labels as Neely believes that spreading of the count dilutes it
nevertheless i would like to disclose that GOD WILLING ,in this year itself 6338 should be crossed without breaking 4855 but should come below 5040
But for Neo wave followers the bottom on 9th Jan was also predictable as if you are a neowave follower you know Neely beleives that the actual low(4531) should not be counted as actual bottom but the pattern ended at 4675
Samajdar ko ishara kafi hai
happy trading

AAR VEE said...

@ Kumarji
@ Alpesh
@ PS,

Thanks for the comments

AAR VEE said...

@ bizagra,

The counts mentioned in charts have not been invalidated ,so no use going for new counts till then.

AAR VEE said...

@ Anonymous ,

Thanks for visiting and posting a critical analysis and finding so many 'flaws' in the counts posted.
Let me put forward my perspective for the same -

1."You have too many flaws while labelling the first count , you are labelling it WXYXZ where Z is yet to come , how can X be labelled when it has broken the upper channel?"

A 'X' wave has nothing to do with channel and retraces more than 50%,normally 61.8% of the previous corrective pattern ,(here double zigag from 6338).It fulfils the condition. Also it can take the form of an expanded flat in wave X which also is valid here.

2."How can b wave take less time in both the ABC and when a corrective is in progress"

The time factor is not a hard rule of EW .both the 'B' Waves fulfils their fibonacci retraces to be valid.

3."how can a c(x) wave cross the b wave in less than 50 percent of the time though it may be retracing a b wave which you are labelling as expanding flat, are the arms of an expanding flat so volatile??"

C(X) fulfils the validity of its relation with wave A(X) for an expanded flat . There is no guidelines as such for its volatility. and if u go by literal market sense of volatility specified by VIX ,it was under 25 for most times of C(X). should check that at ur end.

4."the c(x) wave is perfectly channeling , does an impulse channel perfectly, i doubt and when 1 is microscopic in comparison to the 3rd wave how can the corrective after that breach the 4th bottom??????"

U answer urself ,have u not seen any impulse moving in a channel and its not perfect as u say as wave 4 does not touches the channel bottom.
Wave 3 can extend to 4.25 times wave 1,here its only 3 times apprx. ,so whats miniscule wave 1? The corrective after that can easily move to iv-3 in place of 4th if wave 3 is extended.

5."too many flaws
you should introspect on the above points and revisit the nifty chart."

I have put a perspective forward. It is not flawed as per EW hard rules. Please introspect at ur end and revisit the textbook for the points above. I will be happy to help is u want some references or similar examples in time and fibo reltionships.

6. Thanks for posting ur veiled counts in later comments. My blog following is not so much that it will get liquidated.

7. Try putting valid reasoning across rather than your fault finding theories based on time etc and not EW rules. I am putting forward a perspective which has been helpful till now since 6338and I follow mine. U can ignore them and follow urs as each should do with his counts.

8. Not interested in such advices , ignore if u dont find it good and rest in peace. And as u said - "Samajdar ko ishara kafi hai"

Regards

Anonymous said...

I am Extremely sorry If I have offended you,you took it otherwise whereas KRG rightly identified that"These kind of time & channel requirements are not looked at by traditional EW followers, probably one of the reasons for multiple counts "
Neo wave eliminates or so to say neelys extensions prevent you frm such labels and thus multiple counts can be eliminated.
You rightly said everybody should tread their own path and if find anything not commensurate rest in peace and not interfere.
Try out neo wave predictions on nifty that nifty should not cross the top 5630 before coming down below 5040 till (5-15may)and will do in a whip saw manner without breaking 6181-5740 trendline.
Sorry again, no offence thought of

KRG said...

Anonymous: I have two comments;(1) Spreading the count dilutes it..! Well then we will never be able to test a theory, can we? (2)You are assuming that there is a single "neo-wave count" - I am not so sure.. while I like the rigour that the neo-wave brings to EW, even Neely himself keeps changing his counts on S&P/ Gold etc. The changes are required since one is trying to catch the trend early without awaiting post-pattern confirmations etc... I see that VP has also changed his major counts on Nifty many a time and he is one of the leading neo-wave followers. In fact till recently one of the alternate counts he is following has the major B from 2009 bottom still not complete... Though he has given up this now, I feel that it may still be possible that we are in the B (going by the 7-8 mth diametric kind of cycle)from the 2009 bottom); So if you have a count especially a long term one, pls do post and I am sure we are not popular enough to dilute the multi-billion market's EW counts..Also I notice that most EW persons are not interested in neo-wave since it is tough to track

Anonymous said...

Hi KRG , I am enchanted by the language you write , it doesnt hurt anybody , i should learn it from you
Any waY it is better I dont write on this blog as i dont want to hurt any body in future, I am little bit convinced by your thought and would readily give you my count with all the explanation and radical, if you give me your personal email or your own blog.

KRG said...

Anonymous: I believe that a little humility can take you a long way and pulling someone else down is not achievement in any sense; If I feel that I know it all and I am on top.... Then there is only one way forward and that is DOWN...

you can send me on http://krgonline.blogspot.in/

piyush sharda said...

@krg

i know very little ew and nothing of neo. i have read vp's views and
he has alternate counts.

if i think aloud- it is not possible to remove alternate count problem in freely traded markets whatever technology one uses. ew has less rules so alternate counts always occur and at times more that two. neo has more rules so alternate count occurs less than ew.
something that is effected by emotions and human mind ie market. can u believe that a human being can make some rules which can define all market movements?? i doubt so.

Anonymous said...

Hi KRG you had given your mail id but later you withdrew it pls give it again so i can post you the counts

ubs said...

dear aarvee,

looking at the market, there is an descending triangle formation of around 460 points on nifty. so logically the nifty is appearing to retest levels of 4750-4800. Kindly confirm whether the EW theory confirms these levels. the features of a sucker wave, which started at 4530, also appear to suggest these levels. You can always correct me if i am wrong in my approach.

Warm Regards,

Anonymous said...

Dear PS,KRG
Learning Elliot wave is like climbing a tricky mountain.when we climb a mountain ,the way to the top is not known . Sometimes a single way is seen , at other times many forks are seen . we take a route which looks and feels the right way . We start with lot of enthusiasm . After walking on it for some time we realizethat the route we have taken does not take us anywhere. It leads to a dead end. Then we have to again retrace our path and search for the right way . It is frustrating and and drains our enthusiasm . This process is difficult which probably explains the low public interest in "mountain climbing" . Many people get frustrated and go back without reaching the mountain Top.
If you want to make it a little easy Great work of R N ELLIOT needs to be seen in with revolutionary new Ideas of Glen Neely.
Next weekend may see 5498-5537

KRG said...

Piyush: I agree.. No one is infallible. Neely uses deterministic language, but if you try and read between the lines, he is also all about probabilities and likelihoods. I am also still tyring to understand neowave.. I can give the basic principles, but applying them real time is tough

Anonymous: you can reach me at
http://krgonline.blogspot.in/

or rg2609 at hotmail dot com

AarVee: How r u... your blog is hijacked by Neely this week!!!!

Cheers

Anonymous said...

I have a little change in my counts I think 5352-5261-(5518-5537-5555) is appropriate in the coming weeks

AAR VEE said...

@ubs,

If you are taking the probability of a triangle ,which looks like it since 5630 and combine with EW ,it will then be bullishly inclined for breakout. Triangles are continuation patterns in EW which normally occur in a wave 4 or B and follow the trend previously in force before there formation (here bullish).

Regards

AAR VEE said...

@KRG ,

I dont mind the space being used for constructive and healthy exchange of ideas. As a student of market I am open to all ideas which will enhance learning.

bizagra said...

Dear Aarvee...ant change in yr counts??or we r following same as of now??thx. Plz give yr weekly update..

Share
Subscribe